The Brazilian economy should find itself in an unenviable position in 2022, as it will have the worst performance among 12 large emerging countries according to a compilation by the newspaper Paulo and by Broadcast (the real-time news system with data from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and from five large consultancies and banks. The expectations of Bradesco, Goldman Sachs, Capital Economics, Fitch and Nomura range from 0.8% to 1.9%.
The IMF, on the other hand, sees an increase of 1.5%, compared to an average of 5.1% in the emerging world.
Among the analyzed nations, the worst performances, after Brazil, are from South Africa (2.2%) and Chile (2.5%).
These perspectives, however, can even be considered optimistic, as the average expectations of economists in the Focus report, from the Central Bank, is at 0.93% for GDP. And there are already banks, such as Itaú, even forecasting a 0.5% retraction next year.
William Jackson, an emerging economist for British consultancy Capital Economics, says that these nations suffered from the pandemic and the rise in inflation and interest rates. “But in Brazil, all this seems a little more extreme,” he says.
Jackson cites the exposure of the Brazilian economy to Chinese consumption and serious structural problems, such as the weakness of national public accounts.
While Brazil only raises the Selic rate, in emerging Asia, for example, central banks have managed to hold the pace of interest rate hikes as they have felt less impact from inflation.
For the coordinator of the Department of Research and Economic Studies at Bradesco there is frustration with the reforms and the possible “hole” in the spending ceiling. “Brazil, relatively, seems to have a more modest recovery”, he says, highlighting at least one positive point We have an important recovery in the job market.